Good Judgment, Inc. will present a three hour training seminar to introduce forecasting concepts, methodologies, and practical applications. Seminar participants will learn about the methods that drove the Good Judgment Project’s success in winning a massive US‐government‐sponsored forecasting competition, resulting in what the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) called “the largest improvement in judgmental forecasting accuracy observed in the literature” on real‐world judgment under uncertainty. Good Judgment’s research and past results have shown that truly internalizing the habits of mind and rigorous thinking that result in better forecasts can only come from continual practice. Therefore, we hope the training seminar will be the beginning of a broader, ongoing relationship with AIRIP, including the provision of continued training coupled with participation in Good Judgment Inc’s public forecasting tournament, GJ Open.
Superforecasters will present to seminar participants in a lecture setting. Participants will be introduced to the multiple, simultaneous balancing acts that underlie effective forecasting and the biases that must be overcome to improve prediction—topics on which we will expand in later sessions – including reference classes (inside vs outside views), belief updating (signal vs noise), and keeping score (calibration vs resolution). Then four superforecasters will lead small groups in interactive exercises using international risk examples.
Breakfast and check-in will begin at 8 am at the Josephine Butler Parks Center in NW D.C., with the seminar beginning shortly after. This event will be open to AIRIP members, select International Protective Security Board members, and #AIRIPChicago2016 attendees first, before registration is opened up to a broader audience. Seating is limited, so register early!
Member rate: $145
Non-member rate: $195
The International Protective Security Board is an independent, volunteer organization devoted to promoting the protection industry's interests and professionalization.
The International Protective Security Board was established in the spring of 2016 as a non-profit organization. Pending the approval of our 501(c)3 application by the IRS, which we expect to happen soon, all donations to the International Protective Security Board will be considered charitable contributions and will be tax deductible.
Our Mission is to facilitate the development and awareness of professional standards and best practices for the Protective Security industry; offer and facilitate professional development; promote the industry with existing and future markets; and provide research on the protective security industry, its practices, and markets.
Cancellation Policy: Should circumstances arise that result in the postponement of an event, AIRIP has the right to either issue a full refund or transfer registration to a similar event at a new, future date. Registration is non-refundable. Prior to November 1, 2016 a paid registration may be transferred to another member of your organization. Changes to an attendee will be accepted in writing only and must be received by the stated deadline. All requests must be made by the attendee or credit card holder. On or after November 1, no changes may be made to existing registrations.